By Khedroob Thondup

China’s recent warnings to India not to interfere in the future reincarnation of the Dalai Lama are more than just diplomatic posturing. They strike at the heart of a centuries-old Tibetan spiritual tradition and the geopolitical contest over who gets to define its future. Beijing insists that the next Dalai Lama must be chosen under its authority, a claim rooted in its broader assertion of sovereignty over Tibet. Yet the Dalai Lama himself has repeatedly suggested that his reincarnation may well occur outside Tibet — most plausibly in India, where he has lived in exile since 1959.

Control over Tibet: Beijing views the Dalai Lama not only as a religious leader but as a symbol of Tibetan resistance. Controlling his succession is a way to neutralize that resistance. Legitimacy: By appointing a state-sanctioned Dalai Lama, China seeks to cement ...